Unifor Local 444 president James Stewart has heard a lot lately from members concerned Canada's trade war with the U.S. will impact their jobs, but until those tariffs take effect on Tuesday, he has few answers.
Stewart admits the impact will be significant, but whether it will shutter plants, even temporarily, is not yet known.
"It may be a reduction of hours in a day, which we all went through during the Covid years when we couldn't get microchips," he speculated. "As soon as there's a problem, the whole system slows down."
Stewart says part of the problem is that the U.S. President is moving the goalposts.
Before Inauguration Day, Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico if they didn't address the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants over the border. Canada invested $1.3-billion on measures to improve border security, but U.S. government data shows Canada is not a big exporter of either. Last week, he said the tariffs would continue until Canada is a 51st state. This morning, Trump took to social media to falsely complain Canada doesn't allow American banks to operate in Canada.
"We don't know what his goal is," said Stewart. "Is his goal to make Canada part of the U.S.? Is it to punish our government because he doesn't like it?"
Trump also complains Canada is treating the U.S. unfairly, but Stewart pointed out Trump's team negotiated the last North American trade deal when he was in power the first time.
What is known, there will be an impact on the local auto industry starting on Tuesday.
"The system is so integrated, potentially the cost of building a car rises so much, the cost of a car goes up so much that people stop buying North American-made cars," said Stewart.
If consumers stop buying, plants don't need to make as many.
So far, Japan is not impacted by Trump's trade war. Those vehicles won't be subject to American tariffs and that puts North American automakers at a serious disadvantage.
Unifor has called on Ottawa to provide additional support to workers in trade-exposed industries and communities, similar to benefits implemented during the pandemic.
"These supports should include improved access to Employment Insurance benefits or other special income assistance programs, with more accessible qualifying rules and enhanced income support to offset a greater share of lost income," said the union.
So far, the federal government has said it will match the American tariffs with its own 25 per cent surcharge on up to $30-billlion worth of goods. On Saturday night, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Canadians those measures would increase if needed.
Income supports for impacted workers have been discussed, but the federal government has not yet stated what they will look like.