If you struggled to pay for groceries this year because of elevated food prices, the latest Food Price Report for next year won't offer much solace.
The 15th annual report compiled by researchers at Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia predicts a 5 per cent increase in food prices next year, or another $801.56 for the average family of four.
Researchers used three different machine learning and artificial intelligence models to conclude that the annual cost of food in 2025 will be $16,833.67.
The report takes into account the possibility of the continued impact of climate change on food prices. Labour disputes, new policies, the recent U.S. election, and exchange and interest rates were factored in too.
Last year's report predicted food prices would jump between 2.5 to 4.5 per cent, for an annual expense of $16,297.20. It was only off by $265.13 as those costs went up 2.8 per cent.
Consumers can expect to pay two to four per cent more for bakery items in 2025, two to four per cent more for dairy products, one to three per cent more for fruit, three to five per cent more for fresh vegetables, and for meat, another four to six per cent.
Between September 2023 and this past September, beef prices jumped 9.2 per cent. Those are projected to remain high because of smaller cattle herds in both Canada and the U.S. Canada's herd is the smallest since 1987, while the American herd is the smallest since 1951.
Restaurant meals could cost three to five per cent more than in 2024.
Researchers noted many Canadians have already changed their buying habits adjusting for higher prices.
Almost half of respondents (48.2 per cent) said they were seeking out sales and discounts, 21.6 per cent have switched to cheaper brands, and 24.9 per cent are shopping at less expensive stores.
Respondents who are part of the Gen Z generation, born between 1997 and 2012, are drawing from their savings or even borrowing money to afford groceries. Meanwhile, a Canada Food Bank Hunger Report last March highlighted two million visits to the nation's food banks.
The reasons why food prices continue to rise are many and varied. Climate change is expected to continue to have a "very significant" impact. Wars, like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will likely put upward pressure on that expense, as are energy costs and inflation.
Looking ahead, the report predicts the Canadian dollar will remain lower than the U.S. dollar, pushing the cost of some imports upwards.