Residents along Lake Erie can expect more algae blooms this summer, but they won't be nearly as bad as last year.
That's the word from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who add this year's blooms in the western part of the lake are just beginning to appear.
The agency is forecasting this year's bloom to sit at 5.5 on its "severity index." That scale is based around the 2011 bloom scare, one of the largest ever recorded, which was given a measurement of 10. The algae bloom in 2015 topped the index at 10.5.
"Last year, while we actually had a relatively dry April and May, Western Ohio had its wettest June perhaps ever recorded," says Oceanographer Dr. Richard Stumpf. "That carried over into floods in June and high [phosphorous] discharge in July."
Discharge on the Maumee River and phosphorous runoff from local farms are the biggest factors influencing algae bloom levels. Essentially, less precipitation means less nutrient runoff into the lake. While this past spring was relatively dry, Stumpf adds the even drier summer months will help the lake as well.
"The bacteria likes warm weather, and it starts growing in late June, early July," says Stumpf. "So if you were getting a large pulse of phosphorous in July, it's showing up right when the bloom is developing."
The location of the bloom will depend on wind direction.
Stumpf says the Ontario side of Lake Erie will see algae blooms if prevailing winds come mainly from the south over the next month.
