With an increase seen in the number of flood advisories issued during 2019, it's too early to tell if Chatham-Kent residents are in for another damp year.
Jason Wintermute, manager of watershed and information services with the Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority (LTVCA), said 2019 shaped up to be a busy year in terms of flooding and erosion concerns along the Lake Erie shoreline.
He said there were nearly 100 flood-related messages issued in 2019 that involved the Thames River or Lake Erie. The number of advisories this year is a stark increase compared to the 65 messages issued in 2018 and the 41 messages in 2017.
"Those [numbers] are even higher than what they were prior to that because these lake issues started to appear in 2017 -- that's when the numbers started rising in terms of these advisories," said Wintermute.
In a few instances, the severe flooding over the past two years has resulted in three states of emergencies, which is also an increase.
"It has been a while since we've seen anything like that before," said Wintermute.
Over the past couple of years, there have also been flooding incidents that take place in February. Wintermute said it's difficult to determine if this upcoming February will follow suit as there are several weather-related factors to consider.
"We could get enough ice in the river again to create an ice jam and then you need all of the other factors together which are more weather dependent," he said.
However, conservation officials are still preparing for a potential 2020 flood.
Starting the annual cleaning of the dam's gates in downtown Chatham. Prepping for the potential of #flood2020. #ckont #ltvca pic.twitter.com/Ajj0oIMUr2
— Jason Homewood (@Jason_Homewood) December 19, 2019
"Once the new year comes, we're going to be looking at ice jam potential so we do a couple of things in the fall around that," said Wintermute. "Once the ice gets think enough, we'll be taking ice thickness measurements and the conservation authority has an ice committee who also looks at those kinds of things. Then, of course, regular monitoring to see how things go."
Looking further into 2020, when spring starts to approach, conservation officials will be keeping a close eye on water levels. However, Wintermute said there's no indication that water levels will drop in 2020 at this point.
"The US and Canadian governments get together and put a short-range to medium-range forecast and basically those forecasts say that if we get a normal winter with normal precipitation, we would expect lake levels to basically be at the same place they were," he said. "[Water levels] may be slightly lower on Laker Erie but Lake St. Clair would basically end up at the same."
Flood events are out of residents' hands but Wintermute suggests that people who live along the shoreline look at the break walls when the spring thaw arrives in 2020 as a precaution and make sure ice hasn't caused any damage.
"A lot of the really significant damage events that have occurred on Erie Shore Drive have been associated with failures of break walls and things like that so it's definitely something residents will want to look out for," he said.
One thing Wintermute said members of the LTVCA are looking forward to in the new year, is hearing the recommendations and feedback on a recent shoreline study. A report is expected to go before Chatham-Kent council in March 2020.
With files from Matt Weverink
