The year 2030 may be too soon for Ontario energy providers to phase out natural gas generation, according to a new report.
According to the study released Thursday by the Independent Electricity System Operator (ISEO), the Ontario economy is on track for decarbonization. However, a plan to phase out the generation of gas in nine years may need to be pushed back due to the chance of increased blackouts.
The report indicated that if a phase-out of natural gas was completed by 2030, it would lead to blackouts because hydro would not be available, and gas generation is effective in balancing output from wind and solar generation of electricity. It also stated that gas replacement by 2030 would force Ontario to rely on newer forms of storage that have not been proven at that level.
The study also said an increased cost of the average consumer's hydro bill could be as much as $100 per month, translated into a $27-billion price tag for finding new supply sources and upgrading transmission facilities.
Lesley Gallinger, ISEO President and CEO, said that efforts to decarbonize are still on the right track.
"Ontario’s electricity system is 94 per cent emissions-free as a result of the phase-out of coal generation seven years ago," said Gallinger in a media release. "This gives us a real advantage when it comes to electrification. Our system offers an immediate and cost-effective approach to emissions reduction from other sectors in the economy."
The ISEO also reported that just three per cent of total emissions come from Ontario's hydro industry and that if consumers make the switch to electric vehicles, individual emissions could drop by as much as 97 per cent.
"As the organization responsible for the reliability of the grid, we are taking steps to ensure that it can support wide-scale electrification," said Gallinger. "But we can’t do this in isolation."
The complete report is available on the official ISEO website.
