Saugeen Valley, Grey Sauble and Maitland Valley Conservation Authorities (MVCA) are keeping an eye on the weather with concerns that rain, and runoff from melting snow will create bank-full conditions with flooding in traditional low lying areas.
The MVCA reports the snowpack will be almost fully depleted by Friday with the exception of portions of the Township of Huron-Kinloss and some woodlots. The current snow water equivalent ranges from 70 to 96 mm. The peak in Harriston and Listowel is expected overnight on Thursday (March 11th) and the peak in Wingham and the remainder of the Maitland watershed is expected to follow on Saturday (March 13th). The peak in the Nine Mile River watershed is expected to occur over the weekend.
The Saugeen Valley Conservation says with warmer temperatures persisting until Friday, forecasted precipitation and associated snowmelt, together, will result in elevated water levels across the Saugeen River watershed over the next 5 to 7 days. Rain is forecasted to develop late Wednesday and continue through into Thursday. Total amounts of up to 10 to 15 mm are expected.
If the rainfall exceeds 20 mm, more significant flooding can occur. In some areas of the watershed, rainfall will be absorbed in the snowpack, however, sustained warm temperatures and frozen soils will cause the melting snow to run-off quickly to local watercourses. There is always a risk of bluff erosion along the Lake Huron shoreline but residents should be aware that the approaching rapid thaw will saturate the bluffs and heighten that erosion risk.
Grey Sauble Conservation reports snow cover water content varies from 10 to 12 cm. They expect seasonal flooding of low-lying areas. There is also concern regarding the potential for ice jams. The increase in water levels will likely mobilize the ice sheets and they may cause jamming and localized flooding.
Municipal and County staff should monitor problem areas and prepare to close low-lying roads. Residents are reminded to stay away from all watercourses. The cold water, deteriorating ice conditions on rivers and lakes, combined with slippery and unstable stream banks, will create hazardous conditions near all waterways.
Conservation Authorities will continue to monitor conditions.
