Saugeen Conservation has issued a Watershed Conditions Statement, outlining a Flood Outlook across the Saugeen Watershed.
The statement, effective from Tuesday, January 23, 2024, to Sunday, January 28, 2024, warns residents and authorities of potential flooding due to forecasted precipitation, rising temperatures, and snowmelt over the next several days.
Anticipating above seasonal water levels, meteorologists predict a significant rise in temperatures, surpassing freezing points, and expect 20 to 25 mm of rain between Wednesday, January 24, and Thursday, January 25. As of January 22, the snowpack holds an average water content of 45 mm. The melting snow, combined with the forecasted precipitation, may result in a runoff of 65 to 70 mm. Although some areas might absorb the rainfall within the snowpack, sustained warm temperatures and frozen soils will likely cause rapid runoff to local watercourses.
Additionally, heightened water levels increase the risk of river ice break-up and movement. This could lead to ice jams and potential flooding, particularly in non-traditional areas. Ice jams are possible anywhere along watercourses, with higher likelihoods near culverts, bridges, and channel restrictions.
While significant flooding isn't currently anticipated, watercourses may reach or exceed bank-full conditions, causing minor flooding in low-lying areas. The situation could escalate if the region experiences temperatures and rainfall amounts beyond current forecasts.
The public is strongly urged to avoid all watercourses, as well as structures such as bridges, culverts, and dams. The combination of high water levels, fast-flowing water, and slippery conditions along watercourse banks poses extreme dangers. Remaining ice on watercourses during or after this event is deemed unsafe. Municipal and County staff are advised to monitor flood-prone areas closely.
Saugeen Conservation staff will maintain vigilant monitoring and provide updates if conditions change. The issued statement will be in effect until Sunday, January 28, 2024, and residents are encouraged to stay informed and exercise caution during this period.
