Ontario could get back to below 1,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, but it would require real sacrifice.
New projections released Monday by provincial health officials suggest that, under the worst case scenario, Ontario could see up to 30,000 new cases per day by the end of January. The current trends would see about 5,000 cases a day. The worst case scenario would also see Intensive Care Unit occupancy higher than 1,500 beds by the middle of next month.
Right now, there are 265 people being treated for COVID-19 in the ICU across Ontario. It's expected that number will climb above 300 in the next 10 days.
According to the province, there has been an approximately 69 per cent increase in coronavirus-related hospitalizations over the past month, with an 83 per cent increase in the number of patients in the ICU.
Co-Chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said, as the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care continues to climb, it will be harder and harder for hospitals to provide care for other patients.
“This means that we will see cancellations of surgery, we will see reductions in access to necessary care and we will see the risk of delayed access to intensive care unit care for people who clearly need it immediately under any of these scenarios,” he said. Brown also said Ontario could reach 50 deaths a day by mid-February if the current path is maintained.
Dr. Brown said based on information from previous four to six week "hard lockdowns" in countries such as Australia and France, Ontario can reduce COVID-19 cases to fewer than 1,000 a day. On Monday, Ontario reported 2,123 new cases of the virus and 17 more deaths.
"Earlier is always better," said Dr. Brown when asked if lockdowns work and when they're most effective.
